Depth * Company * Revitalization 南宁桑拿 Biochemical (000403): Management improvement is worth focusing on the emergence of operating inflection points
The reasons for the poor performance of the 2018 annual report and Q1 2019 are the increase in sales expenses brought about by more and more academic promotion since the fourth quarter of last year, one-time accrual of management expenses, and still high interest expenses.
However, from the perspective of income, it has shown a sustained and steady growth.
Focusing on 2019, the performance through market promotion will be gradually realized, and internal control will be realized. The performance will be lower and higher, and the inflection point will appear.
In the long run, the company’s endogenous and external extension continue to open up space, maintain the level of overweight, and continue to focus on tracking.
Key points of support level The basic core assets are still of high quality and the moat is deepening.
In 2018, the company’s pulp extraction volume was 400 tons. Of the 13 pulp stations currently owned by the company, 2 have not yet been extracted. Among the pulp extraction stations, only 4 mature pulp stations contributed more than 300Ton, there are 6 new pulping stations in the past three years, and the volume of pulp extraction is still climbing, and the company is continuing to build new pulping stations.
We judge that only by endogenous growth, the pulp extraction volume can exceed 800 tons in the future. At the same time, the company does not rule out extension methods to expand pulp station resources.
The worst is over, and the turning point in business is looming.
From 2018Q4 to 2019Q1, due to the increase in market promotion and management costs caused by historical issues, the profit was under pressure.
However, the upward trend gradually emerged. From the perspective of income, 2018Q4 single-quarter revenue reached 2.
2.6 billion, the highest value in nearly five years.
From the perspective of profit: In 2018, Shuanglin Bio’s net profit was 1.
At 15 trillion, the profit per ton of pulp is about 32 trillion, exceeding the industry average (about 50 million / ton).
As the production yield of old products continues to increase, new products are gradually approved for marketing (coagulation factor VIII, fibrinogen). The reduction of run-off and leakage caused by strengthened management in operation will drive a steady increase in profit per ton.
At present, the subsidiary Hunan Weikang Pharmaceutical has filed for bankruptcy (a decrease of 11.88 million in 2018), and will not cause any further drag on the consolidated statements in the future.
The performance in 2019 will show a situation of low before and high after, and the inflection point of operation will try to appear in the middle of the year.
The improvement of management is worth looking forward to, and endogenous plus extension opens up space.
Leaders fully realized that domestic blood products companies have been at peace with the status quo in a market environment where demand has been in short supply for a long time. They are far from overseas giants in terms of technological level, product types and clinical promotion capabilities, which has led to the consumption structure of Chinese blood productsSexual backwardness.
In particular, products such as static propionate, coagulation factors, and fibrin are deducted far from per capita consumption.
The company will seize the opportunity to open up direct sales channels to terminal hospitals, strengthen academic promotion, and promote the industry’s shift from resource-based to technology-based.
The new junior budget is stable. In the future, it will not be ruled out that the blood product business will be enlarged and strengthened through outbound mergers and acquisitions. Management improvement is worth looking forward to.
It is estimated that the net profit forecast for 2019-2021 will be 2.
1.7 billion, 3.
05 billion, 4.
2.0 billion, up from +171.
Corresponding price-earnings ratio of 34 times, 24 times, 18 times, maintaining the overweight level.
The main risks faced by the rating The progress, depth and sustainability of the company’s management improvement exceeded expectations.